Golf ScoutStrokes gained explained
Strokes gained compares each shot with a benchmark: the average number of strokes to hole out from where the ball started, minus the average from where it finished, minus the one stroke you took. A positive number means the shot did better than the benchmark. Columbia professor Mark Broadie developed it, and the PGA Tour adopted it in 2011.
The idea
From any spot on a hole, golfers of a given standard take a predictable number of strokes, on average, to hole out. Strokes gained uses that as a yardstick for every shot:
Strokes gained = expected strokes before the shot − expected strokes after it − 1
A shot that leaves you somewhere better than average for one stroke gains strokes; one that leaves you worse off loses them. Add up every shot and you get strokes gained for the hole or the round, and you can split it by type of shot.
Mark Broadie, a professor at Columbia Business School, developed the method using historical shot data. The PGA Tour first asked him about putting statistics in 2008 and adopted strokes gained in 2011. He set it out for golfers in his 2014 book Every Shot Counts.
A tour example
The PGA Tour's own example is Rickie Fowler on the 18th at the 2015 Players Championship, a 446-yard par 4 where the tour average from the tee is 4.100 strokes:
- Drive to 116 yards in the fairway, where the average is 2.825: 4.100 − 2.825 − 1 = +0.275.
- Approach to 16 feet 11 inches, where the average is 1.826 putts: 2.825 − 1.826 − 1 = −0.001.
- Putt holed: 1.826 − 0 − 1 = +0.826.
A birdie 3 against an expected 4.100 is +1.100, and strokes gained shows most of it came from the putt.
A club golfer's hole
Now a golfer off 18 on a 400-yard par 4: a drive into the rough 170 yards out, an approach to 30 feet, and two putts for a par. Here it is against a scratch golfer, and against a golfer of their own handicap, using the expected strokes in our calculator:
| Shot | From | To | Vs scratch | Vs 18 handicap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive | 400-yard tee | 170 yd, rough | −0.23 | +0.08 |
| Approach | 170 yd, rough | 30 ft on the green | +0.46 | +1.18 |
| First putt | 30 ft on the green | 3 ft on the green | +0.05 | +0.32 |
| Second putt | 3 ft on the green | in the hole | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Hole | +0.29 | +1.60 |
Expected strokes from Golf Scout's model, the same as the strokes gained calculator.
Against scratch, a par is +0.29: scratch golfers average a little over par from that tee. Against their own handicap the same par is +1.60, a good hole. The table also shows where the strokes came from, which a scorecard can't: against scratch, the short drive into the rough lost strokes and the approach from the rough won them back.
The four categories
The PGA Tour splits strokes gained into four parts that add up to the total:
- Off the tee: tee shots on par 4s and par 5s.
- Approach: approach shots, including tee shots on par 3s. See strokes gained approach.
- Around the green: any shot within 30 yards of the edge of the green, other than putts.
- Putting: every stroke on the green. See strokes gained putting.
Why golfers use it
Traditional stats can mislead. Broadie showed that putts per round mostly reflects how close you hit it, not how well you putt. Strokes gained fixes that by allowing for where every shot started.
It also changed what people thought wins. In Broadie's study of PGA Tour players from 2003 to 2010, the long game, shots from over 100 yards, explained 72% of the difference in strokes gained between players, against 17% for putting and 11% for the short game. Tiger Woods gained 3.20 strokes a round on the field, and 2.08 of them came from the long game.
Scratch or your own handicap?
Against a scratch golfer, most club golfers lose strokes on nearly every shot, which tells you how far you are from the top. Against your own handicap, it shows which parts of your game are better or worse than golfers like you, which is what tells you what to practise.
How to get your own numbers
You need each shot's distance from the hole and its lie: tee, fairway, rough, sand, trees or green. Note them on a card, or track your shots with an app, then enter a hole in the strokes gained calculator.
Try the strokes gained calculator
Related guides
- Strokes gained putting: how good is your putting really?
- Strokes gained approach: how good are your approach shots?
- How to track your golf shots
Sources
Golf Scout Pro works out strokes gained off the tee, on approach, around the green and putting, against a scratch golfer or a golfer of your handicap, for every shot you mark. Get Golf Scout on the App Store, free for iPhone and Apple Watch.